How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained

2021 4 فوریه
2 500 013 بازدید

Buy my book Humble Pi now!
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UPDATE: Harvard Book Store have totally sold out.
My talk on 4 February 2021 at Harvard Book Store:
www.harvard.com/event/virtual_event_matt_parker/
Here is the original accusation against Dream.
Video: irworld.info/show/fy-lm-h-y/YoKJrZp_lq51xJU.html&ab_channel=Geosquare
Paper: mcspeedrun.com/dream.pdf
And here is Dream's reply.
Video: irworld.info/show/fy-lm-h-y/Zp6hprSlgbicu7I.html&ab_channel=DreamXD
Paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1yfLURFdDhMfrvI2cFMdYM8f_M_IRoAlM/view
"Matt flips a coin 100 times."
irworld.info/show/fy-lm-h-y/iWeIqsqnZJml0KY.html
"Holy Craps! How a Gambling Grandma Broke the Record"
content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1901663,00.html
Number of casinos in the world in 2011: 3,547
www.statista.com/statistics/221031/total-worldwide-casinos-by-region/
Roulette records.
www.roulette17.com/stories/record-reds-blacks-in-a-row/
CORRECTIONS
- At 09:08 I say “1 in 110 trillion” when I meant to say “1 in 110 billion”. The number on the screen is correct, it was just a verbal slip-up.
- At 25:27 I showed the 118 craps record as “1 in 1.2 × 10^9” when it should be “1 in 2.2 × 10^9”. The voiceover says the correct number.
- I slip and “more likely” instead of “less likely” at 33:47 (I think I may have even been going for “more unlikely”). But everything in the screen is correct.
- Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!
Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend [[REDACTED]] hours filming myself trying to achieve improbably things. If you support me, you can get access to all [[REDACTED]] hours of bonus footage from this episode.
www.patreon.com/standupmaths
As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. And I believe they have no opinion on Dream.
www.janestreet.com/
Endless filming by Matt Parker
Editing by Alex Genn-Bash
Some graphics by Ben Sparks
Minecraft consultancy by Oliver Dunk
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: standupmaths.com/
US book: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UK book: mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-paperback

نظر
  • I’m not commenting on how many takes that took. But feel free to guess! (And if you must know: the complete footage of every attempt will be uploaded to Patreon. patreon.com/standupmaths )

    Stand-up MathsStand-up Mathsپیش 24 روز
    • I wonder how long the bball thing took XD

      Charske VlogsCharske Vlogsپیش 4 روز
    • @BlacksmithTWD These are all of the streams Dream did in 1 week, they are all uploaded on twitch

      kkmackkmacپیش 5 روز
    • @TheAtheistPaladin I think 100 million absolute best case. Most likely, more like 1 trillion

      kkmackkmacپیش 5 روز
    • @Douglas Morrison Probably did but he realized it would be good for the video so he re did it until he didn't smile.

      Shaquille OatmealShaquille Oatmealپیش 5 روز
    • I love minecraft, and find it too be highly mathematical, I am sure you found this to be true as well, I came for the math though and thanks. My fahter and I both actually love this game, we use the mathematics embedded in the game to create massive structures in Survival. And in doing so, we learned to count at incredibly fast rates, although, only usually based on 2 and 4 though, or sometimes 64 if we must. It has created an interesting view for myself, as I began to notice real mathematical patterns in the real world, which was really wild.

      Fred ScoobyFred Scoobyپیش 5 روز
  • This guy looks like Jim Carey

    ELYTZELYTZپیش 3 دقیقه
  • Why is nobody talking about the no-look bullseye at the beginning?

    SophisticDavid7SophisticDavid7پیش ساعت
  • I should probably say I’m a normal viewer who likes minecraft

    J HSJ HSپیش 2 ساعت
  • Getting the USB in on the second try is still rarer than the 10 Billion Human Second Century. Always takes 3 tries.

    HAHA 468HAHA 468پیش 3 ساعت
  • I was here for the math but I also love dream. What a coincidence.

    NinjavoxNinjavoxپیش 3 ساعت
  • Your backward throwing skills are on point - at least in this sample size. Who would've though playing video games would garner interest in math - and the dark wizardry that is statistics? What are the odds?

    gamewizlgamewizlپیش 4 ساعت
  • There's a reason why that astrophysicist wanted to be anonymous

    Yossy YossiYossy Yossiپیش 4 ساعت
  • There are about 100 casinos in my country and I've never heard of craps before.

    Sime ArsovSime Arsovپیش 5 ساعت
  • Great video, god damn!

    PerrePerreپیش 5 ساعت
  • The 10bhsc thing actually would make sense for some stuff, like if it was applied to cellular processes or something. Genetic mutation probability would then have an upper bound so you could compare that to the known amount of mutation over a hundred years- kinda like another ruler for genetic time. Would need to compensate for the number of human genomes on the planet at the time and all that and i might be hella wrong lmao

    Hawkeye PlankHawkeye Plankپیش 5 ساعت
  • My statistics final is writing an analysis on this video and the dream speedrun controversy. This is really fascinating

    CitizenCassCitizenCassپیش 5 ساعت
  • "we have dude perfect at home"

    Help YourselfHelp Yourselfپیش 6 ساعت
  • Matt. Proposal: rename the Ten Billion Human Second Century, the 'Theoretical Upper Limit of Sustained Activity'. Why? Because the acronym is TULSA, and I feel like Oklahoma deserves a shout out.

    TheLongDarkTheLongDarkپیش 6 ساعت
  • How versed are you in crypto graphic math?

    FulgwarFulgwarپیش 7 ساعت
  • Cant believe I watched this guy on tv when I was young and now hes analyzing dreams speedrun

    Soushnabh BagchiSoushnabh Bagchiپیش 9 ساعت
    • What did he on tv?

      Ben AnonBen Anonپیش 7 ساعت
  • What are you studying? -Minecraft

    Nickolei WasNickolei Wasپیش 10 ساعت
  • 1:58 me who’s a fan of Minecraft and your channel

    Charles BCharles Bپیش 10 ساعت
  • Didn't account for whether or not he was wearing lucky underwear.

    some studentsome studentپیش 11 ساعت
  • This is funny because I was accused of hacking a game site to win more on the slots. This is a free play site so no money involved, unless you are one of those people who buys more credits. On the other hand, if they did offer to buy back credits at the same price they sell them for, I could buy a small country, say, Australia. It wasn't hard to do because their random numbers generators sucked and they didn't use the same process used in the slots played in casinos. Combine that with being able to figure out that, if this game was winning and stopped, then the odds were that the one next to it would pay out. I assume the accusers were playing the ones they thought were cute. They have improved their method of not paying out.

    walldoo99walldoo99پیش 11 ساعت
  • Love the 10 billion human second century concept ! 10BHSC

    Yury VlasovYury Vlasovپیش 11 ساعت
  • Why does my guy look like george from Masterchef Australia

    FlashyyTTVFlashyyTTVپیش 12 ساعت
  • How about Mike Postle

    B CB Cپیش 13 ساعت
  • Can I just say that you look very similar to Michael Palin from Monthy Python?

    ThatsYKnowThatsYKnowپیش 14 ساعت
  • I wouldn't even been that mad at dream if he just admitted it; his videos are entertaining even if they are staged. But it's the fact that he doubled down and deliberately spread misinformation on twitter that made me unsubscribe.

    Agent DAgent Dپیش 15 ساعت
  • If you're having 6 craps an hour you should probably seek medical advice.

    TrippyDrewTrippyDrewپیش 16 ساعت
  • This video has 2,4M views, and it deserves so much more.

    DarknessDarknessپیش 19 ساعت
  • Analyze Chuya Takizawa’s Attack Ship Agent 2:06 next 👀

    Eric FEric Fپیش 20 ساعت
  • Is it possible this is still selection bias because they picked only the two things which he had a crazy luck on and ignored all the other normal things which happened

    SadSkinsSadSkinsپیش 20 ساعت
    • no, it is not selection bias. this are parts of the game that a cheater would edit to improve their runs. acceptance is the key to moving on.

      septemberseptemberپیش 9 ساعت
    • Prior to getting caught Dream had complained on his Discord that he was having trouble with ender pearl and blaze rod drops specifically, and those two RNG factors are what by far matter the most for speedrunning in that version. So it would still be suspicious if all of the other RNG factors came up as normal.

      Agent DAgent Dپیش 15 ساعت
    • Not really. The probability is so phenomenally small that the chance of this set of runs ever having occurred is so close to zero as to be comical. Imagine taking a six-sided die, trying to get 6's, and rolling a six 25 times in a row. No other context matters, that die is loaded...... Dreams speedrun is about 1% as likely as that. The main thrust of the last 10 minutes of the video is that the chances are so, so low, that no amount of correction, or crazy luck, could possible justify it. In his words (Paraphrased): If every human on the planet did those minecraft speedruns every second for the next century, it still probably didn't happen, ever, to any of them.

      Shadowrider1134Shadowrider1134پیش 19 ساعت
    • Mods addressed that in the original paper. Dream's expert massively overcorrected in his response. But the point of this video is that no amount of bias saves this probability.

      AthenriAthenriپیش 19 ساعت
  • Keep the beard, it looks cool

    Yigael VidzYigael Vidzپیش 21 ساعت
  • When he threw the boom back I just went "goddamnit"

    Huh NeatHuh Neatپیش 22 ساعت
  • Seeing you and dream in the same thumbnail killed my brain for a good 20 seconds

    Huh NeatHuh Neatپیش 23 ساعت
  • I haven't played Minecraft in a while nor do I have any knowledge of this community. Go to creative mode spawn everything in then go back to survival mode and then beat the dragon. The credits role and the achievement is yours, Minecraft doesn't care. I'm not wasting any time on this dragon. Besides, building and exploring are the main parts of the game anyway...

    David GraingerDavid Graingerپیش 23 ساعت
    • @crash yes I'd had an idea of that but I didn't care. Rather play GTA V online, play football or go to Amsterdam.

      David GraingerDavid Graingerپیش 13 ساعت
    • But this is a competition. He submitted his time with the claim it was legit. But it isn't.

      crashcrashپیش 13 ساعت
  • 12 hours is incredibly conservative for the average operation time of a casino. The vast majority of casinos are open 24 hours a day.

    Bleep BloopBleep Bloopپیش 23 ساعت
  • seeing what happened after the credits ends: we've been tricked we've been backstabbed and we've been quite possibly bamboozled!

    crochetcocokingcrochetcocokingپیش روز
  • Why is tom segura making a video about minecraft and statistics

    Alae AdlouniAlae Adlouniپیش روز
  • I watched the first few minutes with playback speed at 1.5x accidentally and was wondering since he was talking that fast lol

    Daniel SyrowatkaDaniel Syrowatkaپیش روز
  • Lucky enough to see Matt with a beard should be deemed too lucky!

    ShadeDustShadeDustپیش روز
  • That Beard really looks good on you. You should have kept it.

    Patrick ViertelPatrick Viertelپیش روز
  • Nobody gonna mention that mental good throw he did of the book?

    Charles HughesCharles Hughesپیش روز
  • Everyone: Dream Me: how did this mad lad get a bullseye without looking? 👁👄👁

    KookookaplekskyKookookaplekskyپیش روز
  • I must say though that Minecraft stadistics seems to be wrong. I have done the maths for what is the aproximate amount of gold you would get by mining with Fortune (I, II and III) and without on the nether. I then did many tests in game and saw a youtuber doing so. By statistics the amount you should get was waaay lower than what you would always get. Therefore whenever you have certain probability for something in Minecraft i would not take it as a garantee stat. I have no opinion in the Dream stuff it self, though i tend to trust the numbers. But i think Minecraft supposed stats might hide something, probably other codes change those probabilities to be higher than they seem.

    LTC Games DivisionLTC Games Divisionپیش روز
    • Can you show me your math, expected result and real result?

      crashcrashپیش 13 ساعت
    • How about your math was just wrong?

      ben_muellerben_muellerپیش 16 ساعت
  • only paid cheats could be better bought recently and it is worth noting that they bring some kind of pleasure played for a week and still no ban watched this video and decided to share with you who needs to download password 1234 disk.yandex.ru/d/f1lsYwu7wFA2gQ

    John KoksJohn Koksپیش روز
  • Dream stans be like: "whatever, I don't even know how to multiply numbers bigger than 12"

    Bush MGBush MGپیش روز
  • This is why I believe in miracles the astronomical odds to achieve that while being a popular youtuber is incredible to say the least....

    jeroby milesjeroby milesپیش روز
  • He's called Dream for a reason. He's probably played minecraft as much as or more than any other human ever and if someone should draw crazy odds it's him

    Fox 8ballFox 8ballپیش روز
    • @Ben Anon totally

      Fox 8ballFox 8ballپیش 6 ساعت
    • Hes still human

      Ben AnonBen Anonپیش 6 ساعت
    • @horizont prove he didn't do you know him personally? Then stfu

      Fox 8ballFox 8ballپیش 9 ساعت
    • except he both hasn't done that and there's no way to prove that he did play more than anyone else, stop defending him

      horizonthorizontپیش 10 ساعت
    • But he hasn’t played it every second for 10 billion centuries. Those are the kind of hours you would need for thar luck

      David CapesDavid Capesپیش روز
  • The beard really suits you. Just trim it a little bit.

    MyYTwatcherMyYTwatcherپیش روز
  • Now do the election!

    Ernie LopezErnie Lopezپیش روز
  • Do the stats change for a game of skill compared to a game of chance? I’m sure if Shane Warne was going to improve with skill when trying to spin a ball onto leg stump that would be different to him rolling dice to see if he could do it. Also like your own ball skills.

    joeleusjoeleusپیش روز
    • @joeleus That's a much harder question. It's easy to find examples of clear cut skill games, and clear cut skill games, but the line in between is really, really fuzzy. Take Overwatch, a game that is largely skill. Despite the level of skill, a number of things can change the outcome. This includes things like certain skins (Farah's Frostbite is an example) giving you unquantifiable advantages (Being hard to see against the daytime skyboxes) as well as the fact that the system used to determine matchmaking, which would likely try to make sure that all players win from time to time, but may also randomly match you with a smurf account (A high level player pretending to be a low level player). Add in the simple questions of starting character selection, and the skill/luck/pay question becomes virtually impossible to answer. So with that being said, my answer is far, FAR, from conclusive, but here is my definition. Are your inputs and decisions making a clear difference in the outcome of the situation or game? If the answer is yes, than there is skill involved in that part of the game. If the answer is no, and there are still multiple possible outcomes, than it is luck. The problem is, almost all games balance luck and skill, and even corporate greed, to some extent. Worse yet, luck and skill are often blended, many games have variable damage, where your damage numbers have a random element, but hitting the mark is still skill. Even chess, hailed as a pure skill game, has a piece of luck at the beginning of the game. Who goes first?

      Shadowrider1134Shadowrider1134پیش 18 ساعت
    • @Shadowrider1134 and that opens up another train of thought. How do you judge whether a game requires a significant amount of skill that a proportion of training or effort will change the distribution of outcomes? The gaming industry is gigantic and I’m sure many people believe they are developing skills when they play. I’m sure most of the gaming businesses regularly tweak their programs to make sure skill doesn’t ruin the illusion of their business models which rely on micropayments and grinding.

      joeleusjoeleusپیش 18 ساعت
    • Yes. Stats become largely irrelevant in games of pure skill. Usually there is some small element of luck, but it can be reduced to basically 0. Imagine a professional chess player playing chess against an average 7 year old, no one would be very surprised to see 100, even 200 wins in a row. But flipping a coin and getting heads 100-200 times in a row is unthinkable.

      Shadowrider1134Shadowrider1134پیش 19 ساعت
  • Incredible work matt

    Connor DrippsConnor Drippsپیش روز
  • In his Dreams. I’m shocked i havent seen this comment

    ZakZakپیش روز
  • bUt tHeR3'5 5T1LI a ch@anc3 - dream stan

    howiestillgamezhowiestillgamezپیش روز
  • Thank you so much! You finally put this thing to bed.

    George munsonGeorge munsonپیش روز
  • Dream is a cheater!!

    Wilbur !Wilbur !پیش روز
  • Matt you’re a gem, had to put this one on the big screen and pour myself a beer!

    N. J.N. J.پیش روز
  • So if I follow correctly it would take 1000 centuries? So your saying there’s a chance! 😉

    Joe DowlingJoe Dowlingپیش روز
    • 1 in sextillion.

      xoAlexxoAlexپیش 14 ساعت
    • U should add a couple more 0

      Hawo Ali AhmedHawo Ali Ahmedپیش روز
  • This has been recommended for weeks I refuse to watch it. I only clicked on it so it would stop being there

    Seth SchaffnerSeth Schaffnerپیش روز
    • what, you scared of reality?

      horizonthorizontپیش 10 ساعت
  • I was there at the roulette table when that record was set! I was the guy who lost all his money while yelling "always bet on black!" After each spin

    Fun For allFun For allپیش روز
  • I know nothing about Minecraft and little about Speedrunning, so i'm a bit confused at Mats comments ~10:30 - if this run would have been "only" the 4th fastest, why is it even so controversial. And if one needs such incredible unlikely luck to get such times .. what about all the others [above/around him], wouldn't they be at least as unlikely? Did i miss something?

    Michi R.Michi R.پیش 2 روز
    • @Michi R. Another thing that is worth remembering is that other players managed to complete the parts of the game that don't rely on luck (travelling, mining, building, etc.) faster than dream because they are potentially better at the game than Dream. Going faster in and of itself cuts down a lot on time.

      Daniel RhodesDaniel Rhodesپیش روز
    • Ah yes, i guess i forgot about that and thought that's chances over one run. That makes more sense - thanks guys!

      Michi R.Michi R.پیش روز
    • Dream is accused of altering the drop rates over 6 streams totalling about 24hours of gameplay. Other runners have had better individual runs but Dreams lucky streak over 24 hours is impossibly lucky due to the law of big numbers.

      morbideddiemorbideddieپیش روز
    • Luck is part of it, but it's not the entire thing. Secondly, the one in twenty sextillion is for the drops across the six livestreams, not for his final run.

      AthenriAthenriپیش روز
    • It wasn't mentioned in this video but up until the very last part of the run, Dream was on pace to get the world record, and it only ended up not being the case because he had to go back and get more eyes of ender thus wasting a lot of time

      Antonio Molina TorresAntonio Molina Torresپیش روز
  • I think illuminas last Speedrun might also be too lucky

    Recardo FernandoRecardo Fernandoپیش 2 روز
    • Dream had bunch of Lucky runs not just one

      brawl starsbrawl starsپیش 2 روز
  • I got bored on this channel for the first time.

    Super Chilli FaceSuper Chilli Faceپیش 2 روز
  • I'd be interested to know how the Minecraft code creates the 'random' element of these drops. Developers generally use algorithms to create 'puedo-random' numbers, true randomness isn't really achievable in most cases. Depending on the 'randomness algorithm' at play, the distribution of values may be more predictable than suggested here. Nevertheless, an excellent breakdown of the mathematics at play.

    Matt SokolowskiMatt Sokolowskiپیش 2 روز
    • The random number generators are attached to several factors in the world so the amount of white noise generated makes them impossible to manipulate. Even if dream was adoring that though he would have to reveal his tactics for the run to be valid anyway.

      morbideddiemorbideddieپیش روز
  • I'm like WHAT ABOUT THE MISSING CLOSING PARENTHESIS. Oh he just mentioned it. OK. :D

    almo2001almo2001پیش 2 روز
  • I wonder, did people account if there were worlds played off livestream?

    DatRude SandstormDatRude Sandstormپیش 2 روز
    • Doesn't actually matter unless there's reason to believe that the drop rates should differ

      AthenriAthenriپیش 2 روز
  • The fun thing is regardless of how unlikely anything is, so long as it’s not impossible, it could still happen at any point in time

    SyntaxSyntaxپیش 2 روز
    • It’s also possible for all the spaces in the atoms of your body line up perfectly with the atoms of a solid object and u phase right through!! So I suggest u go run into a wall a couple hundred thousand times as it could “still happen at any point” (:

      Hello? ??Hello? ??پیش روز
    • It's also always possible that someone is wrongly convicted because someone who looks exactly like them has committed the crime. Would you like to empty the nearest few prisons near you, just in case?

      crashcrashپیش روز
  • This guy looks like depressed Jim Carrey

    Cuntroll DeniedCuntroll Deniedپیش 2 روز
  • Dreams personality is the one that will win no matter what, ive met someone like dream before, he will do anything to win even if it means cheating

    Lev Just levLev Just levپیش 2 روز
  • The thing to consider with the casino examples too is there is a human element of those events. Its undoubted that the way the dice were rolled and the dice themselves would dictate heavily on the rolls. The actual odds of the 154 craps rolls is likely lower than what pure math which makes dreams record even more absurd.

    Heshieok FaslaHeshieok Faslaپیش 2 روز
  • 23:32 I wonder how many takes it took to roll those numbers in that order

    Work OutWork Outپیش 2 روز
    • @Hello? ?? I assume, to cut down on time, he had four scripts. snake eyes into 7, box cars into 7, 7 into snake eyes, 7 into box cars.

      AthenriAthenriپیش روز
    • However he probably just kept rolling snake eyes until he got it, and then rolled for a 7 so a lot less take than you would think

      Hello? ??Hello? ??پیش روز
    • Well snake eyes has a 1/36 chance of happening and rolling a 7 has a 6/36 or 1/6 chance of happening, so both happening consecutively is a chance of 1/216...

      Hello? ??Hello? ??پیش روز
  • came for the minecraft. staying for more maths.

    No NameNo Nameپیش 2 روز
  • Just here for the speedrunning tea

    Head ChefHead Chefپیش 2 روز
  • Algorithm pleasing comment

    EforEvery1EforEvery1پیش 2 روز
  • Omg this guy destroyed this Dreams guy

    Angel SanchezAngel Sanchezپیش 2 روز
  • Came here for the memes, got out with a book recommendation. Sir, you have interested me in math.

    Angel SanchezAngel Sanchezپیش 2 روز
  • I'm just here to say that statistics are a lie. Dunno who Dream is or who Matt is, but being a guy who finished a special-math class/direction/specialization thingy in high school (I don't know what would be a correct term/comparison to US since I'm based in EU, but it's made of 4 years of study from mostly different math and I.T. classes) and also being a person with 130+ IQ I gotta say that statistics are a big lie and deception. :) And the term "on average" is the biggest weapon of deception (of them all) that can throw numbers in your favor or against you [or anyone else] whatever you like/prefer. Be simple, be binary is my motto; everything in life is 50-50. How? -Well it can either happen or not. You will either win or lose, rod/pearls will either drop or not, you'll either guess where is the ball (under which cup) or not, live or die and so on... Nothing in life (or in our case in games) is perfect and there is always a chance to improve your result, so pushing ourselves to constantly do more/bigger/better is an inevitable progression. How many planets are there? And how big universe actually is? What are the odds that we (human species) are alone in the whole universe? And what are the odds that "aliens" doesn't possess technology to reach our little black corner of space? Yet there aren't concrete proofs that we ever encountered other species so far. Or did we [if they don't look nothing alike we are so stubbornly representing them]? :) You see, it's all part of the viewing point. Once a great man said: "You shouldn't doubt everything, you should question everything, only then you will find a true wisdom", I would rather say it is called 'the process of evolution'. :) #JustDoItNothingIsImpossible

    Mr TavMr Tavپیش 2 روز
    • Wow so ur saying there’s a 50% chance someone is about to jump out and kill you?? Because it will either happen or it won’t!! U should probably investigate that....

      Hello? ??Hello? ??پیش روز
    • ‘all statistics is wrong and i know this because i went to high school’ you have brain damage

      dannydannyپیش روز
    • If you are gonna include your IQ to prove the validity of your statement in an argument, then you are gonna lose for sure..

      AakashAakashپیش روز
    • that.... was overwhelmingly stupid and i want you to apologize for making me read it

      Adrian XhokliAdrian Xhokliپیش 2 روز
    • 'everything in life is 50-50. How? -Well it can either happen or not' I think your confusing possibility with probability.

      RowanRowanپیش 2 روز
  • So dream got 42 pearls out of 262 barters. I’m not arguing for or against dreams innocence, but something all non minecrafters should know is that every speed runner stops bartering after they reach a target number of pearls. With that being said the last barter in any speed run would/should always end in a pearl. So the last barter in each analyzed run should not be analyzed as it is “fixed” as being a pearl. Since 6 of dreams speed runs were critiqued wouldn’t we need to subtract 6 from both the successful attempts and the total attempts when calculating the bartering probability? 36 pearls out of 256 trades not 42 out of 262.

    Austin DowningAustin Downingپیش 2 روز
    • Not how it works. Only the last trade of the last run is guaranteed to be a success. Why not the runs in the middle? Because think about what happens after you end a run; you start another one. Another comment put it best. If you're flipping a coin over and over, and every two heads, you stand up and shout "I can kill the Ender Dragon!", does that mean you can cut out every second heads result to get the rate of your coin? (Also it was 6 live streams, not 6 runs. It was 33)

      JuukaRockJuukaRockپیش 2 روز
  • This man is a straight up mix between Legal Eagle and Tom Segura.

    Fleent Stones?Fleent Stones?پیش 2 روز
  • 7 takes but do to your wording i would guess14-69 takes

    TheZero DavTheZero Davپیش 2 روز
  • A number so lucky that you are actually unlucky if you hit it... because nobody believes you.

    michael Duffymichael Duffyپیش 2 روز
  • here for both and love the math

    TheZero DavTheZero Davپیش 2 روز
  • If his would have been the fourth fastest, wouldn't that invalidate the top three?

    theone9273theone9273پیش 2 روز
    • And to add on to what the previous person said there’s multiple aspects to a speed run in Minecraft such as Biome spawns Village spawns Nether spawns How far the nether portal is How many eyes are already in the portal How close or how far the nether fortress is How many eyes break on the way there Temple spawns How fast you can craft How fast you can kill the dragon And many many more. So no, also dream’s run would’ve been at the very least top 3 if one more eye would’ve been in the portal or if one of his eyes didn’t break. Minecraft is reliant on RNG and that’s why there won’t ever be a “perfect” run and also since Minecraft is constantly changing.

      Sploosh X.CSploosh X.Cپیش 15 ساعت
    • No because Dream's issue was his consistently good luck over 33 consecutive games. The other runners had relatively the same number of runs analyzed and all of them were pretty average.

      JuukaRockJuukaRockپیش 2 روز
  • I love how he has clean backwards throws

    Wilson ChanWilson Chanپیش 2 روز
  • I'm sorry sir but you pointed to mike sltysons punch out as a game with very little luck. That is untrue. I'm able to speedrun Minecraft and get fairly close to some "good times" without crazy luck, I can't even approach some of the mike Tyson times without 1/x000 luck and combos. But I mean other than that awesome video 10/10. Thumbs up.

    AlstoyleAlstoyleپیش 3 روز
    • Getting 1 or 2 second lower than the world record on some Doom maps is also fairly do-able. But you need the skill + a ton of luck to get the world record.

      crashcrashپیش روز
  • disapointed with dream

    Nelson JoppiNelson Joppiپیش 3 روز
  • If it is statistically possible it will someday happen.

    LatencyOsuLatencyOsuپیش 3 روز
    • @LatencyOsu he literally proves youre wrong in the video

      dannydannyپیش روز
    • @LatencyOsu Theres a chance that a mosquito would kill me by stabbing with a knife. Since this event has a non zero probability, will it happen?

      AakashAakashپیش روز
    • ​@Shell Posix haha peak comedy

      LatencyOsuLatencyOsuپیش 2 روز
    • *i sAiD sOmEdAy*

      Shell PosixShell Posixپیش 2 روز
    • @LatencyOsu *metallica "the day that never comes" plays in the background

      morbideddiemorbideddieپیش 2 روز
  • Vojtěch Mělnický, sounds Czech :))

    petufopetufoپیش 3 روز
  • Fantastic explanation. You definitely brought the statistical likelihood to my level of perception. The statistical papers were a little dense. Your craps comparison and the 10 billion human second century idea made it so much more understandable.

    Si74l0rdSi74l0rdپیش 3 روز
    • In fairness - this is a very special situation where the raw probability itself is enough. Usually you have to go into the dense statistics to tell things apart. Here though? The raw probability of Dream's "luck" itself puts us into the nonsense category

      AthenriAthenriپیش 3 روز
  • Great Video!

    Paul GrafPaul Grafپیش 3 روز
  • Verry interesting, about to buy the booke :D

    janjanپیش 3 روز
  • Wait did he a count for dream trading with multiple piglins?

    Billy The KidBilly The Kidپیش 3 روز
    • It doesnt matter because they use the same random numbr generator..

      AakashAakashپیش روز
    • diffeent piglins will not effect trades just increases time to get trades

      Rob GomezRob Gomezپیش 3 روز
    • Doesn't matter.

      AthenriAthenriپیش 3 روز
  • Honest question, cause I really don't know the answer. Isn't it possible, even if the odds are astronomically low, that someone attempting to perform a certain action could perform that action on the first go? How can you say with certainty that a human could never accomplish it when in theory it could occurs on the first attempt? Disclaimer: I honestly have no idea who Dream is and have zero investment in whatever drama they've caused. Just genuinely curious.

    Alex WyntersAlex Wyntersپیش 3 روز
    • You can't say it with certainty. But nothing in life is certain, what you can say is that it is on orders of magnitude less likely to happen than to not happen Even a criminal trial is only "beyond a reasonable doubt"

      Logan KordinakLogan Kordinakپیش 2 روز
  • One interesting thing in relation to dream speed run that I feel like nobody has ever paid attention to is the fact that Minecraft runs on Java and Java's random number generator is not perfect using the time as the seed as in most cases every millisecond will create a different seat for a random number so if two actions call the random number generator within milliseconds of each other the chance that the random number is the same is great is highly likely this can easily be demonstrated by making a program that calls it get random number feature and runs it once every millisecond to every 10 or so numbers you will get a string of 10 numbers that are the same number using that random number generator based on the time so therefore if piglin trades were happening at the same time the chances that they would create two ender pearl traits based on the same random number using two different people would mean that the chances if you had two pigs to get two trades of pearls is actually the same as one piglet giving one ender pearl

    Isaac NewtonIsaac Newtonپیش 3 روز
    • @Isaac Newton You're now talking about the periodicity. When a PRNG runs out of numbers in its sequence, it starts to recycle, beginning from the first output once again. This does have an impact on its overall randomness, but only once you start to recycle the values. So what's the period of Java Random in particular? It uses a 48-bit seed. In other words, the period is going to be just a tiny bit less than 2^48, or 281 trillion. That is, after 281 trillion random numbers being output will you run into the issue of random numbers repeating in the same order as the first time around. Going by the mod team's range of 6000-9000 random numbers called from world RNG per game tick, and there being 20 game ticks in a second, even if you highball and say every game tick makes 9000 random number requests, you would need to play for: 2.81E14 / (9000 x 20 ticks/seconds x 60 seconds/minute x 60 minutes/hour) = 434 374 hours. In other words, irrelevant for our 24 hours worth of sample data. Made even less relevant that each time Dream starts a new run, the seed of the world RNG changes. The only time that the periodicity of the PRNG comes into play was if someone was to play 434K hours of Minecraft STRAIGHT in one sitting, in one single world. And time is not in the equation. Time is just a component of the seed. The mathematical PRNG equations do not use time themselves. Again, section 9 of the mod team paper goes over the periodicity in more mathematical detail about why it has effectively no impact here. As an aside: > why Mojang created it so that all penguins reference a single list of random numbers set for the piglins, why not have each piglin have its own instance of prng There's pros and cons to both approaches, and Minecraft actually uses both methods. The Blazes for instance make a new PRNG each time they die to determine their drops. Having a "master" PRNG control everything (or in Minecraft's case, mostly everything) is actually accepted practice in most situations, as it makes it less likely a player can manipulate that seed to their liking. Since it only happens on world load, that means a player can't really interact with it in any meaningful way during the course of a session since it's already been set, and it's being used in too many places to effectively keep track of where you are in the PRNG sequence. The only real disadvantage of this strategy is potential for lag; that is, if too many things need random numbers from this one generator, parts of the game could stall if the PRNG can't spit out numbers fast enough and force them to wait their turn for a value. Even at 9000 near simultaneous requests though, Minecraft is quite well below whatever limit Java Random has. Instantiating a new PRNG really is just there to dodge that problem. Since these get seeded on each mob death, there IS a chance that a player can manipulate the time to try and alter their results favourably. That's why Minecraft is smart and throws a wrench in those plans by seeding not only the time by itself but XOR'd with another random number from another PRNG which can't be manipulated by time because it has a set seed and is also called a random number of times so there's no telling where it is in its sequence either.

      JuukaRockJuukaRockپیش 2 روز
    • @JuukaRock thank you for clarifying, I have never had the opportunity to read how the code for penguin trades works myself, the question still does remain when prng gets another number for the list or generates a whole other set how is it doing so, it also begs the question of why Mojang created it so that all penguins reference a single list of random numbers set for the piglins, why not have each piglin have its own instance of prng. Or likewise each piglin could have its own prng which would be seeded with its uuid? The only basis for my comment is the fact and that Java random is not random, nor is any computers random actually random, because computers are based on logic computers can only create logical answers, we can create complicated functions that take in lots of different variables and do some very complicated math to make them seem more random but they are in fact generated from non random things. Errors in implementations in such randomizers can create odd patterns making the random sequence of numbers less random for lack of a better term. This can be better seen in sloppy implementations of random functions, Javas is better than some it is definitely not the best. My point still stands if you generate a list of 10 trade integers, at some point your list of integers will run out and you will have to generate more, when you generate these integers they will be generated very quickly between them. Whether you stock the list by adding one as soon as one gets removed or by generating a completely new list when the first one is empty, my point remains the same about the random numbers being generated based on time and probably other factors, which means that random numbers generated in quick succession have a higher chance to be the same number than ones created different times apart. This of course can be negated by using other variables and combination with time to make the values "more random" but any inclusion in time in the random equation will mean that random numbers close together will be more likely to be the same. Especially when generating numbers within a very small range. The smaller the range the more likely to get the same number in a row more often.

      Isaac NewtonIsaac Newtonپیش 2 روز
    • @Isaac Newton > principal remains the same No it doesn't, your principle is wrong because your understanding of how RNGs work is wrong. > RNG is called super close together there is the possibility that the same number will come out twice No. This is not how it works. Let's do an example. Say I have a PRNG, and that for the sake of this example, only Piglin trades request from this PRNG and nothing else (this is not how it works in Minecraft, this is purely for this teaching example). This has a pre-determined sequence of values. Since Piglin trades are out of 423, let's say I request 10 numbers from my PRNG for 10 trade results. I make a save state right before. I do this one with 10 Piglins simultaneously. My results are: 302 78 17 221 259 405 161 84 318 385 Even though the 10 trades happen all at once, the PRNG still needs to spit out the numbers in some sort of sequence because they aren't using multiple PRNGs, they're only using one, so it only ever goes one number at a time (it just happens so fast it's like it's simultaneous to us as humans). So my first Piglin rolled a 302, my second Piglin rolled 78, my third rolled 17, etc. etc. etc. I reset and load my save state and do my 10 trades again, but this time, I only use one Piglin and I wait a minute between each trade. Do you know what my PRNG results will be? You guessed it, it's 302 78 17 221 259 405 161 84 318 385 In other words, my single Piglin rolls a 302 for the first trade, then a 78 for his second trade, then a 17 for his third, and so on. The time does not matter, nor does doing them "simultaneously". One single PRNG can only spit out numbers one at a time, so requesting numbers from it all at once does not mean anything will receive the same value necessarily.

      JuukaRockJuukaRockپیش 2 روز
    • @JuukaRock more specifically what I'm referring to is yes the random number generation is based on some more complicated factors than just one RNG but the principal remains the same since the RNG is called super close together there is the possibility that the same number will come out twice. What I didn't articulate very well in the first post is, say I create a for loop which calls 100 times to get a random number from the random number generator 5 to 7 of them sometimes 10 depending on random number generation will be the same number even though it is called several different times, if the random number generator were to be called very close together such as dropping a stack of gold to several piglins where the more piglins you have the more likely they will all pick it up at the same time, the more likely you are to get the same trade from two piglins. This is happened to me in the game where I will be trading with three or four or five pigments at the same time and sometimes two and even three of them will give me the exact same trade at the same time even same amount, now yes this is pretty rare and doesn't happen very often but it's still possible taking in consideration that we have a small sample size when talking about these and there have been no direct studies on the subject of how often you could reliably get a double trade it's hard to tell exactly how this would affect the probabilities, but even just happening a few times because of the small sample size would be enough to dramatically shift the probabilities.

      Isaac NewtonIsaac Newtonپیش 2 روز
    • > I feel like nobody has ever paid attention to The first mod team paper (like, all of section 9), the accompanying video by Geosquare and 35:36 all address this to varying degrees, the most detailed of which is the original white paper. > using the time as the seed as in most cases every millisecond Nanosecond actually, so 1000 times more narrow to hit the exact same time as another instantiation. Also, Minecraft RNG is seeded not only by the system time in nanoseconds, but that is XOR'd with a number from an LCG (another RNG). So even if you do something like freeze the system time, you aren't going to get the same seed between different RNGs. > easily be demonstrated by making a program that calls it get random number feature and runs it once every millisecond to every 10 or so numbers you will get a string of 10 numbers that are the same number Doesn't work like that. You can get identical results if you pass in the same seed to different RNG objects and get the same number of outputs from both of them. However, if you're using only one single RNG and calling numbers out of it, it will be random enough, and the time that you ask for the next random number isn't going to matter since the order is already pre-determined by the seed. With regards to Piglin trades, they use the same RNG, the world RNG that is called thousands of times per game tick due to lava and netherite blocks calling it repeatedly to render how they do their animations. Because of that, no human player can accurately predict where in the PRNG sequence they are. Trading with multiple Piglins all at once doesn't matter since they'll be calling numbers from the PRNG in some sort of sequence, even if it LOOKS simultaneous to us as viewers and players. Java Random's cryptographic weaknesses here aren't relevant, especially with how Minecraft uses it.

      JuukaRockJuukaRockپیش 2 روز
  • Nice vid man! ty buying your book now.

    Miguel PonceMiguel Ponceپیش 3 روز
  • A beard?!!?!?!!?!?!!??!?!??!

    R.J. SearsonR.J. Searsonپیش 3 روز
  • Hello I like your channel, I am posting this sin some math oriented channels I like, because I would like some feedback... I dont know if its the right place. anyways..." Hello any math lover out there, or simplhy math fan.. I am from Mexico and I found a document from US sating the proper way to teach and view math. I am worried that they are politicizing math now. And soon this type of view may spread... I dont like that it sates " there is usually not a correct result"??? Am I READING this wrong???? ...please ... (equitablemath.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/11/1_STRIDE1.pdf)"

    Mike RivasMike Rivasپیش 3 روز
  • Is there such thing as too unlucky to be true?

    CatadoodleCatadoodleپیش 3 روز
    • @Adrian Xhokli Ok thanks. I've been having an argument with someone online about it and I wanted to make sure I wasn't providing false information xD

      CatadoodleCatadoodleپیش 2 روز
    • yep, if dream had gotten 0 pearls or blaze rods in all of those runs, the odds of that happening would be astronomically low as well, just like how rolling 50 snake eyes' in a row is just as unlikely as rolling 50 7's

      Adrian XhokliAdrian Xhokliپیش 2 روز
  • I would like to see the odds of 320000 consecutive Biden votes, which if we are to believe the results, actually happened.

    Mikael IsakssonMikael Isakssonپیش 3 روز
    • Cope

      Ben AnonBen Anonپیش 6 ساعت
    • Look at his recent videos

      Darksun黑日Darksun黑日پیش 2 روز
    • Yeah, gerrymandering does that.

      JuukaRockJuukaRockپیش 2 روز
    • Source?

      morbideddiemorbideddieپیش 3 روز
    • bro even if he didn’t win popular vote (which every investigation shows he did) biden got more electoral college votes.

      Rob GomezRob Gomezپیش 3 روز
  • The chance of getting killed by a chihuahua is small, but never zero. Just remember that.

    MasthaXMasthaXپیش 3 روز
    • Imagine you live 60 years to get killed by a chihuahua.

      Sploosh X.CSploosh X.Cپیش 15 ساعت
  • Talking about the lava/water making obsidian thing makes actually real world sense as it is how obsidian rocks are formed (well not exactly, but you get the idea).

    MasthaXMasthaXپیش 3 روز
  • Lol i was waiting for the cut between the dart and the basketball.

    MrSayinesMrSayinesپیش 3 روز
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